Local housing market showing signs of  improvement

By:  Karl Keith

One of the most important steps in the county’s efforts to update property values in 2014 is a thorough analysis of valid real estate sales that occurred in 2011, 2012 and 2013.  In reviewing the most recent sales, we are beginning to see some signs that the local housing market is rebounding, but much of the improvement is limited to specific communities.

Market activity has certainly picked up across much of the county.  During the second quarter of 2013, there were 1,122 valid residential sales in Montgomery County, an increase of six percent over the second quarter of 2012.

When we compare the purchase price of these sales to the current assessed value of the properties, we find that 54% of the transactions were for a price that exceeded the assessed value.  This is the first time since June, July and August of 2010 that purchase prices have exceeded the assessed value on more than 50% of the sales for three months in a row.  In June 2013, 59% of the sales were for a price above the assessed value, the highest percentage of homes selling above value since July, 2009.  This is clearly a sign the market is improving.

That’s the good news.  The unfortunate news for the majority of homeowners in Montgomery County is that this “rebound” in the market appears to be limited to specific areas.  Well over half the valid sales during the second quarter of 2013 involved properties located in the suburbs south of Dayton.  Centerville, Washington Township and Kettering led the way with 419 sales, more than 37% of the countywide total.

These, also, are the communities where we tend to see the most improvement in terms of sale prices.  Kettering appears to be experiencing the greatest overall improvement with a 28% increase in the number of valid sales for 2013 compared to 2012 and with 64% of those sales for a purchase price above the assessed value.

Other communities continue to show signs of a struggling housing market.  The number of sales in Trotwood and Harrison Township decreased by 40% or more.  And, even though the number of sales in Dayton has increased by 10%, only 32% of those sales were for a purchase price that exceeded the assessed value.

It is too early to say definitively what this will mean to overall property values in the county.  Regardless of those communities where we see some improvement, the overall housing market in Montgomery County continues to show signs of weakness.  As a result, we expect further declines in values when the 2014 revaluation is completed. 

Date: April 10, 2014

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